Stupidity: Are We Looking in the Wrong Direction?

Martin Bartels

3 September 2022

 

 

How we understand stupidity

According to the common understanding, stupidity has something to do with the inability or unwillingness to think in an orderly manner.We do not feel a strong urge to define the term more precisely, because each of us experiences so much stupidity around us almost every day that no need for an accurate description arises. At work, in politics, and even in science and charitable organisations, possibly in our own wider families, stupidity seems to grin at us. Stupidity appears to be so overwhelmingly evident and arouses so much aversion that we find it difficult to deal with it soberly.

 

Change of perspective

The conventional understanding of stupidity as the absence of the ability to think properly cannot actually be correct. Simple experience disproves it: Anyone who has ever had a discussion with a dedicated conspiracy theorist, for example, will no longer doubt his or her capacity to think. Such people can erect and develop the most complicated thought structures in an almost acrobatic way. They search obsessively to find endless details that substantiate their conclusions. Clearly they have a capacity for thinking, even if the output is manifestly wrong.

In 1976, the Italian economic historian Carlo Cipolla published an article on the subject of stupidity titled "Le leggi fondamentali della stupidità umana", the English translation of which is titled “The Basic Laws of Human Stupidity”. Cipolla radically changed the view on stupidity, moving away from the woolly prevailing opinion towards an innovative and more precise understanding of the phenomenon. The essence of his approach is not to understand stupidity in terms of the ability to think, because that is only a potential that can be used in various ways. Rather, he identified the decisive criteria to be behavioural patterns firmly rooted in the personality. The practical value of his approach is that we can better assess the dimension and dangerousness of stupidity and even work on defence strategies.

 

Cipolla’s system

You may have seen a warning sign on a garden door in France that says “Chien bête et méchant” = "Stupid and malicious dog". This is an expression of subtle black humour, and yet the message has a chilling effect when we think of the dog's chaotic willingness to bite without reason. Such a dog would embody what Cipolla has identified as real stupidity.

Cipolla’s definition of a stupid person as one who is determined to indiscriminately harm other people as well as themselves does not exclude the ability to think accurately. Rather, the thinking capacity of a person of this type is the arson accelerant with which he or she can maximise damage. The blindly stupid person finds fulfilment in damage, regardless of short or long term implications.

As the following diagram shows, Cipolla’s understanding of stupid people becomes obvious when considering their opposite, i.e. intelligent people. The latter, in fact, are naturally anxious to benefit others and/or themselves with their actions. They are committed to what economists designate as “Pareto improvements”. Intelligence understood in this way can be linked to the ability to think sharply, but this need not be the case. Rather, the decisive factor is the consistent intention to generate benefits and the ability to recognise the need for reasonable action. These qualities are anchored in personality.

Naïve people have similar propensities, but are to be distinguished from intelligent people. Naïve people believe in generating benefits, but still feel good about their actions even when they cause self-harm.

Then there is the bandit class, those who are convinced that they can only gain advantages for themselves at the expense of other people and who operate with deception and violence.

All except the stupid can find themselves in a different quadrant in different situations or states of mind. Thus, it is not impossible for a member of the bandit class to act in the mode of an intelligent or naïve person when an impulse to act arises that has nothing to do with enrichment.

Only the people in the lower left quadrant are averse to any mixture; they are steadfastly committed to causing damage.

What makes the stupid particularly dangerous

The stupid, according to Cipolla, invariably make up an integral part of any group of people. Those who do not belong to the stupid quadrant always underestimate the number and the strength of the stupid, and they do not understand their motives. In particular, they don’t grasp why and to what extent stupid people are uninhibitedly to harm even themselves with full awareness and vigour.

According to Cipolla, the probability that a certain person will be stupid is not correlated with any other characteristic of that person, i.e. education, thinking capacity, gender, social status, cultural background, religion and nationality do not make a difference.

The assumption that the stupid implicitly and invisibly follow a rational line of reasoning is for the non-stupid a seemingly logical projection of their own way of thinking. And it is a dangerous thinking bias.

The people from other camps who think they can ally themselves with stupid people will lose.

 

The most dangerous stupid people

Stupid people are most dangerous when they have risen in their social framework, have abundant resources and wield power. Their personality traits, their belief system and a human environment that expects benefits are exacerbating factors. The following graphic is a tentative look into the abyss. It is a sub-case of the dangerous quadrant of Cipolla's model.

It is unlikely that the totality of aggravating (or mitigating) factors can be identified. After all, wild imagination gives wings to people from the stupid quadrant. Imagination can be trained like a muscle.

 

How can we deal with the critical quadrant?

Stupid people cannot be imprisoned or dumped of in any other way. Stupidity per se is not a crime. We can only continually strive to identify them and endeavour to contain their actions or at least the impact of their actions.

Since the decisions of people from the dangerous quadrant are something of a realm of darkness for the rest of humanity, there is an obvious antidote, namely transparency.

The development of modern industrial societies is gradually moving in the direction of shortened and more transparent hierarchies within social organisms and increasing disclosure to external stakeholders (e.g. shareholders, clients).

The protection of whistle blowers who expose abuses is recognised as serving the public good. Entities that act in a non-transparent manner and violate emerging social value systems gradually come under pressure from stakeholders and capital providers. A company that violates sustainability standards, for example, makes its own access to capital more difficult.

These are recent developments that can change direction or weaken. Nonetheless, given that ongoing interaction tends to reduce the error rate of social systems, the increasing spotlight may gradually amount to a reduction in the power of the "Cipolla stupid". This should improve the efficiency of social systems.

The previous paragraph is intentionally worded very cautiously. But it is generally true: light dispels darkness.

 

How robust is Cipolla's stupidity theory?

Cipolla has sharpened the eye for diagnosing pathological social phenomena. The existence of people, especially in higher positions, who blindly harm other people and themselves is something everyone can confirm from their own experience or by reading the press. Cipolla’s theory of stupidity highlights this and is more helpful than the popular and clearly too simple idea that stupidity is the same as a weak thinking ability. Nonetheless, the assertion that stupidity exists and works completely independently of the ability to think does not go down easily.

The ultimate test that a theory in social science must pass is still outstanding, namely the empirical verification of Cipolla’s assumptions based on his understanding of stupidity. Since no empirical studies are available that would corroborate the massive presence and influence of destructive stupid people according to Cipolla's definition in really any group of people, caution is advised.

As an economic historian, Carlo Cipolla was firmly committed to strictly rely on facts. However, while his theory on stupidity is intriguing, he will certainly have been aware that this is not yet proof of its validity. We do him no injustice in presuming that he would, if he were still alive, be pleased if behavioural economists used their modern methodology to test his approach. Possibly four quadrants are not enough to capture reality. In the outstanding discovery process, other facets are likely to emerge that will that translate into progress that is useful for modern society.

 

 



The stumbling block

The issue of immigration is stirring up emotions all over Europe, but in order to consider the appropriate rational response, we need to first distinguish between the different forms of migrations. In fact, only one of the four categories of immigration distinguished below is to be classified as a challenge:

 

  1. Migration of High-Net-Worth Individuals (HNWI)

Let's start with the probably smallest group of migrants, which is also the least debated: very wealthy people who are able to move from one country to another with ease. Members of this group seldom encounter rejection and in some cases are actively sought after by countries.


HNWI can weigh up their motives and choose their targets according to their criteria. These include, for example,

  • security for personal life and wealth
  • personal freedom
  • quality of life
  • quality of the healthcare system
  • landscape or climatic preferences
  • tax rates
  • family ties
  • cultural affinity
  • language
  • quality of schools and universities.


Protection of wealth is frequently a major motivation for migration among the super wealthy and countries with low or no income tax are popular in this regard. On the other hand, while certain countries encourage HNWI to migrate to them, the benefits are not always as great as they might expect, especially when the migrant’s assets do not always accompany them to the country they are settling in. Furthermore, with laws that say an individual faces taxation if they spend more than 182 days in a country, those wishing to avoid this, simply rotate through different countries each year thus avoiding paying any income tax at all.


The number of migrants from this group is increasing, and the countries concerned are well known.

This group of migrants does not pose major challenges to European states. 


 2. Migration within the European Union: everyone with an EU passport

Article 45 of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union and Regulation (EU) No 492/2011 on freedom of movement for workers within the Union guarantee the freedom of every EU citizen to take up a job in any other state of the Union and to settle there with their family. This freedom of choice is a cornerstone of the European Union. It has led to significant migratory movements, which, due to the enlargement of the Union into Central Europe, have been accelerating gradually since the 1990s. In most cases, families put down roots in their new place of residence and do not move back to their countries of origin, although they maintain ties there.

The disadvantage of this migration is that citizens whose education took place at the expense of their home states now move to member states with higher wage levels and better career prospects, in effect creating what is known as an internal ‘brain drain’ scenario, where talented workers move out of the country of origin, depleting the national workforce. The receiving states thus strengthen their national economies at almost zero cost to them and at the expense of domestic countries responsible for their education and socialization.

These implications were clear from the outset, but the net benefits from a large economic area with free movement of people, capital and goods outweigh the drawbacks. Free movement has had a predominantly positive impact on the prosperity of citizens. Changing this structure and enacting new restrictions on internal migration would have a negative impact on the powerful new industrial structures that have emerged over the years.

Traditionalists should be very careful when they argue against free migration within the Union as there is a long-standing practice of it within the continent. The last two centuries have seen massive migrations within the area that now makes up the European Union: the countries of origin were mainly Italy, Poland and Greece. These movements are themselves a valuable component of European identity and increased wealth.


 

 3. Migration from outside the European Union: skilled labour

While the world population is still increasing, a simultaneous decline in birth rates has been evident worldwide for many years. The trend is more pronounced in Europe, where population numbers are increasingly moving towards shrinkage.

European economies today face an irreversibly negative trend with an average in the area of 1.5 births by women  combined with an increasing shortage of skilled labour. The labour bottleneck is particularly severe in the areas of construction, healthcare, science, information and communications technology, engineering and mathematics. For Europe, the scarcity of skilled human resources reduces the economic strength of a continent that has few natural resources and is compelled to rely on competitive industries to prevent its decline.

Clearly it is not possible to fill the gaps in the labour market out of the continent's existing population. This would not change even if Europeans could be persuaded to sharply increase the current birth rate. In that unlikely case it would take at least two decades for a generation to become visible in the labour market.

Many industrial processes and services can be designed through additional automation in such a way that even fewer human resources are needed than now. This may mitigate the bottleneck somewhat, but would not eliminate it.

If there is no quick turnaround, Europe’s economies will inevitably enter a shrinking process.

The only possible countermeasure is to enter the global competition and attract talent for the known gaps in the labour market. This has been crystal clear for a long time, but fear of traditionalist and conservative voters’ sensitivities has led to most governments to only address the issue in the abstract and try to cook the necessary debates on a low flame. Slogans like "We are not a country of immigration" earn significantly more public applause in Europe than "We urgently need lots of immigrants". Yet everyone knows from their own experience that when a tooth hurts, it is better to go straight to the dentist. Postponing the treatment makes the pain worse.

Nevertheless, increasingly fierce competition at the international level has developed to bring as much talent as possible into the countries. In the process, even industrialised countries are taking skilled workers and students away from each other. The expression "skills wars are the new trade wars" is not an exaggeration.

The fight for human talents is not much different from the struggle for other scarce resources such as raw materials or technical components. The difference is that the competition for material things is rarely a source of cultural friction. Imported goods and commodities don’t arouse sensitivities among traditionalist voters. When it comes to human migration however, public decision makers tend to tread more cautiously and thus do not give the issue the visibility which corresponds to its actual relevance.

The Europeans are now operating a "Blue Card" system, which allows people from outside the Union to take jobs offered to them and apply for nationality after five years. This is a relatively arduous path for applicants. The “Blue Card” approach is less attractive than the more successful American "Green Card" system in which holders are granted permanent residency from the outset, and after five years they can apply for US citizenship.

Under the present circumstances the winners in the competition for talent are likely to be those countries that have a tradition of continuous immigration, have a long history of selective immigration and have the lowest bureaucratic barriers for immigrants who fit into their labour markets. These would be, for example, Canada, the USA and Australia.

 


 

 4. Migration from outside the European Union: refugees, skilled or unskilled


The right to be granted asylum is not only enshrined in national constitutions and laws, it is also based on:

The right to asylum protects people irrespective of their origin who are exposed to political, racial or religious persecution in their home country. These rules, born out of painful historical experiences that includes the societies of Europe itself, are more than set in stone. All European national states are firmly bound by them. Debates about their abolition are as pointless as those about the abolition of gravity. Yet they are common.

The legal criteria do not extend to refugees who seek to migrate to another country for economic or climatic reasons and who are therefore unlikely to be regarded as refugees from a legal perspective. In order not to be classified unfavourably, refugees may exaggerate or embellish stories of persecution in their country of origin. It is difficult for the authorities of the receiving countries to properly verify the truth of such statements.

The examination procedures are complicated and take a long time. Even if an application is rejected, expulsion to the country of origin tends to be the exception. Suffice it to say that the length of procedures creates new social realities as applicants more or less take root, children are born and are shaped by the national school system.

 


Growing influx of refugees


The number of refugees is considerable and on average it has been increasing strongly over the years. According to Eurostat's findings, the number of asylum seekers in the Union in 2022 was 881,220 persons, up by 64% compared with 2021. Once individuals have been recognised as eligible for asylum, a second wave of immigration begins when family members are allowed to join them.

Some member states of the Union pursue a restrictive policy by enforcing the legal requirements very strictly or selectively, or even by infringing them. This leads to greater refugee flows to those countries that comply more closely with the rules.

As the authorities of the countries with the highest numbers of refugees become increasingly overloaded with examination procedures, processing times are getting longer. The accommodation of asylum seekers in camps is pushing municipal administrations to the limits of their capacity.

Xenophobic currents in the public debate are gaining support. Surprisingly, part of the growing opposition consists of former refugees and their descendants born or raised in the country who have obtained citizenship and successfully achieved social status in their new homeland.


 

Counterproductive impulses


When frightened or even traumatised people from a different cultural background enter a European country for the first time, their first impressions have a powerful influence on how they think and feel. In the case of many refugees, their first experiences are often crowded refugee camps, questioning, long waiting times, further questioning, etc. Bureaucracy weighs them down, and there is no end in sight.

While they are in limbo for a long time, the idea that dealing with bureaucracy is the way to a better life is imprinted in the immigrants' minds. This puts people on the wrong mental tracks and impairs their chances to settle in an industrial society. While they may become adept at filling out forms, they are missing essential cultural impulses and opportunities to learn and improve on valuable skillsets for an industrial economy.

 

The material interests of the immigration countries

If the member states want to maintain their prosperity, a proper discussion on immigration would mean that all four categories need to be considered.


The first two categories (HNWIs and citizens of other EU countries) do not pose major problems.

The third category ("Blue Card programme") is presently far too small. So a more thorough approach is needed.

This thorough approach could involve giving priority to pre-skilled immigrants from outside the European Union. Labour offices and companies know exactly which human resources are needed. This can be done with low bureaucratic barriers, high-quality language courses to introduce immigrants to the national mentality, help in finding accommodation and schools for children, advice on access to banks and tax advisors, and perhaps even tax holidays for a few years. The threshold before obtaining citizenship should be low for people who prove to be valuable contributors. Employers can be involved in the process of accelerating integration as they themselves have a legitimate interest of their own and will be supportive.

The approach to dealing with the fourth category (asylum seekers) can be to abandon the illusory goal of carefully assessing at the outset whether an asylum seeker has a legal right to stay. Any person whose identity has been verified, who has not already applied for asylum in another member state of the Union and against whom there are no security concerns, should immediately be offered a language course and a first job determined by the labour authorities. This is inconvenient for the applicants, but it provides them with a primary orientation and momentum. It is also more beneficial to their human dignity than the endless dependency on bureaucratic processes. If they prove themselves within a year, for example, they should be given a residence permit and the right to choose a job. This would also give a chance to people who would not be entitled to asylum but who fit into the labour market.

Formal procedures for asylum applications would be resumed only for applicants who cannot be integrated into the country's labour market. Applicants who do not meet the criteria for asylum should be included. Delinquent applicants should be excluded.

For the labour market, the reason for entering the country is not relevant. What counts is a committed and reliable workforce. So the primary responsibility here should lie with labour ministries and administration, while the overburdened immigration authorities are given some air to breathe.

War-disabled, traumatised and seriously ill people should continue to be given special protection and attention. Unfortunately, their number is not small.


Canada, a country with not quite 39 million inhabitants, is an example of a country that derives and updates its demographic needs very accurately from the labour market. There are numerous national and regional programmes that make it easy for needed immigrants to quickly gain a foothold in the country. And the country additionally uses the pool of asylum seekers to enrich the labour market.

“ . . . the Government of Canada is maintaining its target of 485,000 permanent residents for 2024 and completing the final step to reach 500,000 in 2025. Starting in 2026, the government will stabilize permanent resident levels at 500,000, allowing time for successful integration, while continuing to augment Canada’s labour market.”

 

Conclusion


The demographic gap in European countries is a well-documented fact. The EU's population is ageing and shrinking, and there are not enough people to replace the working population.

This demographic contraction will lead to a decline in economic performance and prosperity. The only way to avoid this is through well-managed immigration.

Traditionalists and xenophobes are against immigration, but they have no realistic solutions to the demographic gap. If we give in to them, we will condemn our economies to decline.

To develop a successful immigration programme, we should look to countries with a long history of immigration . These countries have shown that it is possible to manage immigration in a way that benefits both the host country and the immigrants.






Authorship disclosure:

Fully human generated